Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Richard Koch ” A magnificent mix of

” A magnificent mix of luminous writing

"    --Michael Glass

She has far too much to live for

The search for this juste milieu leads to a rationalist aesthetics of historical writing

It raises the subject of the future of Islamic theology and makes a genuine contribution to this debate

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Richard Koch ” A magnificent mix ofThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an